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Article 50...
#1
I have the feeling article 50 will never happen - I could be wrong of course but watch this space - Your thoughts?
#2
It will happen.
The Conservative back bench will make sure of that.
Just a matter of when.
Maybe after a general election to try and build a hard brexit majority in parliament.
Silly Sarcastic So-and-so
#3
Interesting times ahead indeed
#4
Hmmm not bothered any more, getting bored with the whole thing. Both sides lied to us all. It's all total BS.

I have a feeling something not short of ww3 is about to happen and all this Britex thing will be forgotten. There way way more important things happening in the world. Also just goes to show the UK is now a second rate country.
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#5
What is article 50?
#6
Emiliano Wrote:What is article 50?

EU member state wanting to leave the EU
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#7
So more countries are thinking about doing it now?
#8
Emiliano Wrote:So more countries are thinking about doing it now?

Possible but unlikely.
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#9
Emiliano Wrote:What is article 50?

Formally notifying the European Council the intention to withdraw from the EU .

UK officials have been delaying it, allegedly until the end of the year, first cause of Cameron's resignation and then, I can assume, to reach a political agreement as to how the British State will negotiate the departure.

In some respects, this is a wise thing to do because The British Government and the European Council need to draft the terms and conditions under which it will happen, which will most likely go through having to neutralize hardliners in both sides, namely the ones in Europe wanting to punish the British decision by economical means and the ones in UK wanting to basically kick out immigrants as soon as possible.

Naturally, negotiating future things such as the possibility of a free trade agreement as a way for UK to maintain ties with the European Common Market (which is pretty much the only reason why it joined the EU in the first place) and the situation of EU citizens working in UK, the relocation of some companies and economic entities from UK to a EU member state, etc, all will go into those talks.

Even then, the process will take about 2 years, from the invocation of Article 50, so delaying indefinitely is not a good thing. Markets around the world and the British currency have also been hit quite a bit by the uncertainty, so there's another reason to do it soonish.

As to whether it should happen or will happen, I say it has to. I find it ridiculous that half of the people get to decide to get out, with no statistically significant difference (52 vs 48? Please) but the referendum accepts a simple majority, so there you go. For the British government to go against that and dismiss it (which it can, the referendum is non-binding) would be unwise.

But, the hardliners that want to see UK fully outside of Europe and happily isolated like the good old days before the world wards, won't and must not get their way either. It would be ridiculous for the government to yield to these kind of "out" voters considering, for instance, that EU is still UK's major trading partner. And it's not like Britain has a colonial empire from which to draw resources anymore.

For better or for worse, no one will get everything they wanted. I predict, if people are smart, that UK and EU will remain tied at least economically. I can hope that UK officials will placate hardliners by showing that UK can negotiate the room for maneuvering it wants outside of EU restrictions. If people are also smart on the other side, they would crack down a bit on the problems that lead to the UK referendum in the first place, namely easying up some trade restrictions, tone down the political merge and give more space of action to individual members and finding better ways to deal with the immigrant crisis. All of this to retain other members and keeping them from threatening the same in order to gain leverage.
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#10
Well I think the damage of the Brexit is already done, either if the UK doesn't exit, the GBP will not rise at the same level it was before it, and the sentiment of division will remain even years after. Diplomacy relationships with the UK will get a bit rough... If the article 50 is applied things would be the same but, a bit "nicer" and maybe some other countries will take it as an "example"...

I think this could bring some kind of new opportunities in some areas, economically speaking. Where and how, is not clear yet. But would be interesting to know what kind of new sprouts are growing out from the burned forest.


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