What's on Your Mind

[InbetweenDreams]

My mom is sick. She's really tired, vomiting, and has chills. She's insistent on not going to the hospital, so there isn't much I can do.

Could at least go to a walk-in clinic or urgent care... I get not wanting to go to an ER and all.

[IanSaysHi]

My mom is sick. She's really tired, vomiting, and has chills. She's insistent on not going to the hospital, so there isn't much I can do.

Hopes she gets well soon. If she absolutely refuses to go then make sure she keeps her fluid intake up!

[InbetweenDreams]

My mom is sick. She's really tired, vomiting, and has chills. She's insistent on not going to the hospital, so there isn't much I can do.

Hopes she gets well soon. If she absolutely refuses to go then make sure she keeps her fluid intake up!

And electrolytes too.

[LJay]

My mom is sick. She's really tired, vomiting, and has chills. She's insistent on not going to the hospital, so there isn't much I can do.

Do you have a family doctor you can call?  You could set up a telephone visit.

[Chase]

thanks y'all. She got better, so hopefully it'll stay that way.

In other news, my mom and I have both spotted a cat that's been wondering the road along the mountain ridges, and we think it was abandoned. We've been trying to catch it but no luck.

[Chase]

I predict we're in for what experts are calling "the red mirage" where most mail-in-votes are skewed Democrat, and it will appear as though Trump won by a landslide on Election Day, and then change to a major victory for Biden as mail-in-votes are counted. Trump and the Republicans will attempt to throw out and disregard all main in votes, and there will be major legal battles in the Supreme Court. Democracy as we know it will probably come to an end, when the Supreme Court, stacked with conservative judges, will side with Trump in throwing out and disregarding all main in votes. We will face two possible outcomes - either Trump cannot stop the counting of all the mail in votes in time, and he will rally up his base an incite insurrection among radical right wing groups, or he will stop all the mail in votes, and we will effectively live in a non-democratic coup. This will cause left-wing groups to understandably riot, which will be violently oppressed.

We will soon live in an ultra-privatized age where the very street you walk on is a toll-road owned by a rich family or corporation. Religious fundamentalism will reign supreme, where not only will same-sex marriage be outlawed with overturning Obergefell, but homosexuality itself will be outlawed as Lawrence vs. Texas is overturned. We will never be able to escape, as districts are further gerrymandered and voting rights are further violated.

[InbetweenDreams]

Honestly, I don't think it will be an easy win for either candidate. However, looking at all the polling and all the data that we have it doesn't sound good for Trump given that one of the congressional districts of Nebraska of all states is expected to go to Biden. I would also argue that Trump is likely to lose states like Wisconsin, Michigan and probably Pennsylvania. Some of the states Trump won was by less than 1% of the vote. I think the key issue for Trump losing is going to be because of the pandemic. As I said in conversations with friends and so forth, COVID-19 won't be an issue for most people until they know someone who had it or who died from it. Even in this small community, which is predominantly conservative, I know co-workers who has gotten it and one of them who has lost one grandparent and likely will lose both. So the reality of losing friends and family members to COVID-19 and then to a hear a president spew out lies and lack of any concern or compassion does not favor Trump. I don't think the protests, the riots, the crimes and conflicts of interests eat at Trump's base, but the pandemic will. When your family, your friends and your co-workers are dying from this stuff, I think that's going to be Trump's demise.

I looked at the election results from 2016 and Trump narrowly won several states and I suspect he will lose a few of those states. I mean they have Georgia...Georgia is a toss up. North Carolina, a toss up... These were states where Trump won by a fair margin. Hell even Texas is going to a be a lot tighter. I mean, can you imagine Texas going blue? I don't think that will happen but it seems states that are and have been red for many years don't appear to be the shoe-in in years past.

As far as mail-in ballots. I cannot speak to other states, but in North Carolina, many of the mail-in ballots were received and thus been counted. I don't know how many people wait until the the last minute to vote by mail but I do suspect that a lot of people procrastinate and I could be wrong but I do believe you have a certain window either to request a mail-in ballot or something along those lines...to lazy to look it up. All I know is that my mom got her ballot and sent it in early. I voted this last Saturday in person and there was a line, which social distancing did contribute to, but a lot of people are voting. This election is supposed to have the highest turnout (rate) since 1908....who's all these new people who are voting? Frankly, I don't think the higher turn out is playing to Trump's favor. After all, if Trump was so good and things were so stable we would expect a lower turn out. Although the correlation isn't super obvious, it would seem that in times of stability or a more likable president the lower the turnout is...Take the 1988 election of Bush, the 1996 re-election of Clinton, the 2012 re-election of Obama. Either these were seemingly stable times or a president that was more likable. In other words if things are going better, people stay home, shit hits the fan people are in line 8 hours to try voting someone out (or in). A 10% (the 1908 election has a 65% turnout, the 2016 only 55%) jump in voter turnout...Honestly, I don't think it is because Trump is doing so well. The only thing Trump camp can do is try to make Biden and Harris "scary"



1960 109,672,000 68,836,000 62.8%
1964 114,090,000 70,098,000 61.4%
1968 120,285,000 73,027,000 60.7%
1972 140,777,000 77,625,000 55.1%
1976 152,308,000 81,603,000 53.6%
1980 163,945,000 86,497,000 52.8%
1984 173,995,000 92,655,000 53.3%
1988 181,956,000 91,587,000 50.3%
1992 189,493,000 104,600,000 55.2%
1996 196,789,000 96,390,000 49.0%
2000 209,787,000 105,594,000 50.3%
2004 219,553,000 122,349,000 55.7%
2008 229,945,000 131,407,000 57.1%
2012 235,248,000 129,235,000 54.9%
2016 250,056,000 138,847,000 55.5%

At any rate, I wouldn't dwell on the outcome of the election until election night. It will likely be a close race but I personally don't expect Trump to win and that's not because I'm stuck in some ideological bubble.

Take a look at https://www.270towin.com/ and look at the maps. All it will take is Trump losing a few states he narrowly won and there's a lot of them: Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, Iowa a few others I might have left out.

The other thing I think that is worth mentioning is the turnout for the primaries. If I just pick on North Carolina over 1 million people voted in the democratic primary (about 568k for Biden, and 360k for Sanders) while only 700k voted in the republican. North Carolina is one of the states where if you are unaffiliated can vote in the primary of your choosing. Likewise, Trump is running for re-election but many many things were on the ballot for the primary election. While I don't think that there being more people voting for one party's primary over another is indicative of how it will turn out in the general election, I do think it is encouraging. This will be a close election at any rate and despite all the polls and surveys, we don't really know how it will turn out since this isn't your normal election.

What I'm saying it ain't over until the fat gay liberal sings lol

---

Also worth mentioning. Not sure how other states have handled mail-in ballots but over 544k mail in ballots were cast on or before October 15th. So if other states handled mail-in ballots in a similar manner, then the vast majority will be counted and we'll know more about the results of the election sooner. Other, more populous states might have a bigger delay, like New York perhaps but we already know Biden wins New York and other states like California.

https://www.ncsbe.gov/results-data/elect...statistics

[IanSaysHi]

I updated my CV for the first time in ages today. It seems like such a small thing but I always find it takes a good couple of hours. I’ve finished it, uploaded it to various sites and I’ll see if anything comes up. It’s not really the best time to look for new jobs but I don’t think there’s ever been a ‘good’ time in the past anyway

[Chase]

I just want the sriracha burger to come back

[InbetweenDreams]

I'm really depressed today. I always seem to either get ignored or ghosted. Had a big ol thread typed up but deleted it.