Can the planet support 11 billion people?

[LONDONER]

It's predicted that by 2050 there will be 10 billions on the planet and probably not long after that, 11 billions:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/articl...on-people/

[MFax74]

Maybe 11 billion, but this little planet is running out of space!

Not to mention all the waste we produce. Just imagine the plastic beaches with 11 billion people throwing their junk away! Scary.

[Steve]

My deepest suspicion is that the state of humanity on Earth is going to be ugly well in advance of 2050.

Most people do not have a clear understanding of the exponential growth rate of human population. We're a point in time when the numbers are going to begin to dramatically increase with each passing year.

As more and more people show up to the party, the demand for food and clean water are going to rise proportionately. The supply of fresh water in 2015 is already beginning to show signs of strain.
Imminent Water Crisis in India
China’s Water Problems Are Even Worse Than You Think: Report
California’s Drought Is Part of a Much Bigger Water Crisis.

These are only a few sources of information. Admittedly I have not read every report -- after eight or nine of them they start to run together, barring political red herrings. Even such a small sampling of information reveals the water crisis on Earth is very real and poised to become much worse in the face of rising population.

India is a sure template with which we can employ, laying the series of events currently happening there and comparing them to possible problems in primary world countries as the populations rise.




Even now rivers are becoming polluted due to illegal corporate dumping, the runoff of water from farm irrigation (poorly managed and ineffective application of pesticides, irrigation water, and fertilizer), and unregulated sewage disposal. Experiencing governmental unwillingness or impossibly slow reaction in the face of crisis without effecting real solutions may be the very definition of the US political system today. (How often have we heard leaders say they're are having "serious discussions", "commissioning studies", or the best "implementing the solution _______ years in the future"?) Serious conflict between the have's and have not's in relation to the cost of water (living) isn't a stretch of the imagination either. Stop gap solutions -- such as dams diverting water from rivers, forcing it away from current much needed and depended upon locations (such as agriculture, farmland, small mid western cities), to large metropolitan cities where the need is perceived to be greater, or wealthier enclaves where clean water may be paid for -- aren't unusual types of quick fixes here in the US at all. Comparing India present crisis to a possible (likely) future crisis in the US isn't such a far fetched idea.

Rest assured that although residents in Michigan have long fought to protect our natural resources, namely the Great Lakes, corporate interests will eventually trump conservation interests. When the cost of water and the desperation of need force people to choose between an easy solution like pipelines carrying fresh water vs. natural resource conservation it isn't difficult to see the likely outcome. The cost of living is such a great motivator, no matter the potential threats to the environment. And both the government and corporations are well adept at spinning a rosy future (especially when based on hopeful guesswork), telling the public what it wants to hear instead of what it needs to hear. Foe example: Natural gas: The fracking fallacy

Solutions like water desalination won't begin to happen until the cost of natural clean water rises to the point that the excessive costs of desalination become feasible. One may compare water desalination to the technology of fracking, which has existed for many years. Fracking didn't become cost effective until the 2000's when gas prices rose high enough to prompt more companies to frack shale formations.
Energy Costs of Desalination in Chinese Cities

Hand in hand with growing water shortages will be the immediate problem of human sanitation. Water Facts: Sanitation
[URL="http://www.who.int/water_sanitation_health/publications/factsfigures04/en/"]
Facts and figures: Water, sanitation and hygiene links to health [/URL]

While I'm currently looking at and using statistics for 3rd world nations, remember that I am also looking at a future where the population threatens both the water and food supply of people all across the globe. The implications of current estimates equaling approximately 7 billion inflating to 50 billion in 35 years beg us to look at what is happening in places currently experiencing these problems.

I haven't even started on food shortages. We'll be experiencing higher prices for produce in the US soon enough due to the drought in California, and the repeated torrential rains that have have plagued the 2015 growing season, rotting crops throughout the middle America. Here's a worst case scenario:
Catastrophic Food Shortages By 2040

Now think about how people react when in overcrowded situations. What happens when hospitals, police and fire departments, schools, grocery stores, public transportation, roadways, etc., become over taxed? What happens when Black Friday happens every day? When national infrastructure begins to be compromised through overuse? Add in conflicts that will arise between social classes with income differences. The easy spread of communicable diseases such as norovirus, hepatitis A B C D and E, influenza, impetigo, strep throat, pinworm, ringworm, cholera, tuberculosis, dysentery, etc. will only fuel mass panic.

I am sure some people will remain calm. But there are always those people who become frustrated and angry in crowded, stressful situations. I was a cashier in a major supercenter grocery/department store (not Wal-Mart) for many (too, too many) years and worked every December right up to closing on Christmas eve. A little bit of hostility goes a long way, even on a "peace and good will" flavored holiday. Those emotions left unchecked in crowded situations translate easily into mob mentality.

I am aware that I sound alarmist, which is not my intention. I'm only offering an educated opinion based on over taxed resources and likely health issues which have occurred in the past and are occurring even now. As I said, my suspicion is that long before we hit 2050 civilization isn't going to feel very civilized.

[falconjam19]

Science classes were always my least favorite in high school, and this sort of stuff is why. You try to live life as normally as possible, but doing so knowing you're having such a negative affect on the Earth is alarming. Maybe I should be making some changes.

[Anocxu]

It's a clever article..
It's based on a series of projected theories...
When I was 12.. I read a similar article.. when I was 20 I read another..

Now that I 'm almost 40 I know every few years the media digs into 'Population Explosion' usually taunting the masses into fear and paranoia....

Here's what I see and know ...
The human race is more resilient than we know...
We create and adapt to our own realities...
We grow ..we build and we seem to accommodate everything in between..


I'm concerned..
But far from worried.

[jimcrackcorn]

We are doomed!!!!!

The future of the human species is twirling downward into the abyss, never to return..... In 35 years there will be no life on earth except mutated Cockroaches,,, and maybe a Crocodile or two..

The good news is: There will be no one left to complain about Social Security/Medicare running out of funds by 2060. Hahahahahaha....

Crazy Jim

[LONDONER]

We are doomed!!!!!

The future of the human species is twirling downward into the abyss, never to return..... In 35 years there will be no life on earth except mutated Cockroaches,,, and maybe a Crocodile or two.

I'm with you Jim, a bit of a pessimist as far is the World is concerned- Mind you, it's not going to affect me, by then I will be long gone, but I will be sorry for those left behind.

Man has raped and pillaged this planet for far too long and will eventually pay the price.

[TigerLover]

Well that depends almost entirely on the rate of scientific growth.

Take for example the fresh water supply. It is dangerously limited and de-salination is expensive. But water purification systems are improving all the time and if Bill Gates is successful they'll be a mass deployment of his cheap, highly efficient water purification systems across Africa.
Water recycling may be disgusting but it's highly promising.

GM crops can help us fight off crop diseases, increase yields, raise nutritional values and all without spraying around chemicals.

3D printing and robotics stand to revolutionize manufacturing by cutting out waste with robotic efficiency.

If the Chinese government's thorium project works out we can look forward to a new generation of extra safe and ultra efficient nuclear reactors powered by cheap fuel.

In these and a thousand other ways science and engineering are healing humanities wounds and bolstering our strengths. Just twenty years ago Smartphones we're a mind boggling fantasy. Now they're everywhere and we global instant communication. Who knows what technology will be available to humans in 2030.

This century is a battle between humanities thirst for knowledge and human greed and ignorance.
The victor will determine whether humanity faces a glorious era of enlightenment or a new dark age.

Which will win, I don't know but it is certainly far from a forgone conclusion.

[Cuddly]

Imagine if we standardized all wrappings, so their parts could easily be isolated and recycled. If it was done well enough and in technology, clothing and everything else, we would produce no waste, or atleast only leftovers of the meals we couldn't finish.

What if we focused our research exclussively on solar/wind/similar power? We would have alot of unemployed drillingplatformworkers, sure, but they can get a job building and placing solarpanels and watermills.
What if we forgot about borders, countries and ethnicities and just fixed our shit before it's really too late? Maybe it's too late already... But there's no use in giving up!

[Chase]

Be afraid, be very afraid.
The world is already too overcrowded as it is.
People need to stop making so many babies.
Various Republicans and church leaders already have the answer - make everybody go gay.
Pastor Charles Worley of North Carolina suggested locking gays and lesbians in fences until we all die off, and Congresman Louie Gohmert suggested a scientific study be done by placing nothing but gay men on an island and seeing if they reproduce.
Make the world go gay, and we'll have a lower, sustainable, population.