Trump's desperation

[Genersis]

I understand UK-ers being sceptical of the polls, but polling for Brexit was actually pretty accurate, with the result falling in the margin of error(last minute faux exit polls not withstanding).

Secondly, the US tends to manage quite well polling-wise compared to the UK(No 2015's or 1992's), though there are quite a lot more undecideds and third party voters this election, which does make things slightly less predictable.

It looks like Trump will have somewhere between a 20% to 30% chance of winning by the time election day rolls around(according to fivethirtyeight.com); which is still too high for my liking.

I've been keeping track of the election and been making my own predictions.
If anyone's curious, my prediction currently looks like this:

http://www.270towin.com/maps/pyLdz
It's never really looked like Pennsylvania or New Hampshire have ever seriously considered voting for Trump, and while Colorado slowly drifted to being neck and neck just before the first debate, it hasn't looked competitive since. So while it's pretty clear I don't think Trump has much of a chance of winning, I couldn't possibly rule him out. Though unlikely, mass polling errors and/or unprecedented turnout of uneducated white voters combined with low Democratic turnout could push Trump over the line.

So it cannot be over emphasised how important it is to go out and vote, regardless of how you intend to vote. Also, it's not just the presidential election which is taking place on November 8th:

[InbetweenDreams]

I'm just getting impatient and losing hope and tired of holding onto false hopes and false dreams.

No it isn't silly. Why should I vote for the gay candidate, when I'm not necessarily happy with the gay political agenda?

There are other more important issues.

Hoping you'll meet a nice guy is perfectly rational, neither is dreaming. However, dwelling on the fact that your hopes and dreams haven't been met will drive you literally mad. It makes you cynical, you're way too young to be cynical. Not saying you should prance around with a smile on your face about everything and pretend nothing is wrong but you (and me) need to work on loving yourself. When you can say you love yourself and know you're not faking it then you have at least set up the stage for something to happen. I can pick up negative energy from someone just by their body language, so if you're angry, bitter, self loathing...hate the world because you ain't got a boyfriend well chances are people can feel that from you.

Gay political agenda? Which is what? Equality? Maybe the right that I don't get my ass fired for being gay? Or that when a gay guy gets beat up by a bunch of other guys it is considered a hate crime? I don't know what you mean. So you're not happy with the gay agenda because you're single? Am I reading your posts right?

If you're unhappy with all these things how do you suppose you get to being happy... I mean I imagine you're not happy about being unhappy, so how about a roadmap to getting the things you want. You have to be willing to work for it. Getting mad about it, blaming whatever on whoever isn't getting you anywhere.

Quit saying it is because you're black...gay...fem. When I and pretty sure nearly everyone will agree that whatever the problem is it ties in to the negative energy that we feel and the attitude that radiates from the things you post here. Do I think you're a bad person, no....you want what everyone wants and what everyone is after but you need to look at things from another perspective instead of internalizing and projecting your anger on something that has nothing do with anything.

Does any of that make sense? Do I sound reasonable on what I am suggesting?

[Emiliano]

I'm just getting impatient and losing hope and tired of holding onto false hopes and false dreams.

No it isn't silly. Why should I vote for the gay candidate, when I'm not necessarily happy with the gay political agenda?

There are other more important issues.

Boaxy, it's not your politics I called bullshit on. It's the treatment of your identity as some burden. As if being gay and black is the worst possible combination. Not just in this thread, but a continual theme in your posts. Not that I'm saying that being gay and being black is without struggle, I'm very aware of racism and homophobia. And it's not because I don't like you, I find you interesting and I really like that identity and social treatment are such big topics in your conversations. I am always down to talk about that kind of stuff, just so you know.

But I felt really bad that when I said something about internalized homophobia and racism to you that you interpreted it like I was calling you racist or homophobic. In some ways you come across as so strong and blunt and empowered. But when it comes to your race and sexuality, it seems like you really struggle with embracing it, and feeling empowered by it. I just think you're selling yourself short, you're allowing the racism and the homophobia of the world to cloud your view of yourself, and I think that you have so much more potential than to get swallowed by that shit.

I mean it's none of my business of course, but you keep putting it out there, and I just keep failing to not respond to it.

[Emiliano]

And just to be clear, I'm not asking you to stop talking about your identity. I want you to keep talking about, keep exploring it, keep challenging the way that black and gay men are treated. But as one gay man to another, as one poc to another, stop acting like those identities are inferior or undesirable.

[Emiliano]

They are.

It's rare to see gay couples period and in general. But when I do see gay couples, it's usually two white straight passing men.

I have never in my life seen a gay interracial couple or gay black couple, gay asian couple, unless they were celebrities or socialites hanging out in a wealthy or rich liaison or setting.

I'm saying the LGBT community wants us to support them and join with them in politics. When they never talk about the real issues.

When there are is so much racism in this community to people of color. How many of us do not have partners and live alone and all this gay marriage shit is just a endless dream.

All the gay POC and trans murders and shit.

How the only thing they have working against them is gay conversion therapy which is now banned on minors.

I don't know.

I've never been to LA so I don't know what its like there. But in NYC, there are all kind of gay couples. There are many, many different gay scenes. Diversity doesnt mean two black people and a latino in a room full of white people. I think it does take a big urban center to see that kind of stuff though, just because one, you need a diverse area to see diversity really represented, and two, urban areas tend to draw in more gay people that rural areas. Im surprised you dont see it in LA, because I always assumed it was more or less almost kind of maybe approaching being the west coast equivalent of NYC. But its also pretty clear to me that the two cities have two very different appeals, and in a lot of ways I think of LA as being a more shallow, more rigid to beauty standards, you know, ~*hollywood*~ kind of place.

And yeah, non white portrayals of gay couples are very limited in pop culture. But they do exist, and they are growing in number. I think this is an empowering time to be gay and to be a poc. Things are changing, information is being spread, authority and systems are being questioned, and people are speaking up and refusing to have their voices silenced.

And it might seem like this is getting off topic, but its these same issues - the growing number and influence and power of non white people in this country, the demanding of access to rights and privileges by gay people - these are the things that are terrifying a lot of people who support Trump, people who are nostalgic for a time when gay people stayed in the closet or were shamed, neighborhoods were cleanly and clearly segregated, and black and brown people kept their mouths shut and their eyes lowered. You may have your own reasons for not minding a Trump presidency, but a lot of his followers see him as the last chance for white supremacy. What do you think "Make America Great Again" means to them? When in America's history do you think America was great for people like us? Who fucking knows whats going on in Trump's mind - but the kind of people he promises to empower in his presidency... I dont think theres any question about what their vision of America looks like.

Yes its an uphill battle, and white standards of beauty are constantly being projected, and its easy to fall into the trap of comparing yourself to those and only being able to see where you fall short, how you are different, and how those differences put you at a disadvantage. But if you seek it out, there are other options. And sometimes when you look around and can't find a role model, or don't see yourself represented, it means that you have to step up and be that role model, be that representation of what else is out there. For other people, and for yourself.

Because when you put down yourself for being gay, being femme, being black, being all three - you are putting down other people like you too. You are another voice telling them that they are inferior and ugly and hopeless. And you are reinforcing the racism or the homophobia or both in the minds of others because they see yet another example of a non white, non straight, non masculine man who doesnt love himself.

Thats what bothers me about what you say sometimes. Not just the damage you do to your own self, but the way that it reinforces what other people, even on this site, might think. And I love black and brown people - thats me, thats my mom and my dad, my family, my friends, my community. We are so beaten down in this culture, there is no reason for us to do it to ourselves too. We are better than that. And if no one else is willing to say it to us, lets at least say it to ourselves.