(04-29-2020, 07:30 PM)Bookworm Wrote: Those rain wrapped ones are the worst. It could be anywhere and you wouldn't see it until last minute!

Were you tracking it on radar?

That's exactly what was running through my mind driving in that.

So that day that led me into that mess I started in Childress, TX waiting for storm initiation...I am an impatient person. Perhaps you may have known that from posts way back when. Anyway, looking at this in hindsight I should have waited around at the truck stop in Childress, waited for something get going. I would have been in a good position and would have likely had more awesome shots to share. I simply got behind and the storm overtook me. When that happened I should have simply drove out of it rather try racing a storm moving 55 MPH in heavy rain. I did finally get ahead but the road I needed to take was closed from the tornado that came through there.

The closest thing I saw to a tornado that day was this....



I mean you can see it right? I guess it's technically a tornado.

Technically, I guess so. It just needs to gather some debris around it to give it some better form

I imagine it's something of a guessing game at the beginning of the day, trying to decide the best place to position yourself based on weather interactions. It could go either way.

That's quite a photo @InbetweenDreams ! You might crop the black rectangle on the right out of it and get a good shot for framing!

@LJay You're talking about the ones on the 1st page? I did have one of them printed on canvas. Unfortunately most of the tornado shots had some motion blur. I really do need a better camera that can handle high ISO. Can't have fast shutter speeds and high ISO without it looking too grainy, pretty old camera.

@Bookworm So what I initially did was just guess which weeks in May I should take off. I took off 2 weeks and used one of them for the trip. As the dates neared I picked the time I would leave. I used forecast models from the College of DuPage which has a large Meteorology program.

You may be familiar with the GFS forecast model if you live in the US. It is a long range model which is good out to around 10 days....Although really anything that far out should be taken with a grain of salt and is more general. The next in line for closer range forecasts is the NAM, North American Mesoscale model. It is a bit higher resolution and goes out 3-4 days. The RAP and HRRR are high resolution models and update more frequently and these you use when you're less than 24 hours from storms firing up. The HRRR can be freakishly accurate as it forecasted storms less than 50 miles away from where I was on that day.

That is a general overview on what models I used. Of course I looked at what folks like Reed Timmer were saying and as long as what I foretasted matched up with the consensus of what others were saying.

In general you need moisture (high dew points over 55F), wind shear and lift to produce supercell thunderstorms that can produce tornadoes.

One of the things I look at is a skew-T plot which shows the tempretures, dew point and wind speed and direction going up in elevation.



Those are really useful at looking at whether there is lift/CAPE, windshear and overall an environment that can support this kind of weather.

You can check out the College of DuPage's forecast site with all the different models. https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

Oy! Pretty technical for me, but the pic was neat! Weather never fails to amaze.

(05-01-2020, 09:05 PM)LJay Wrote: Oy! Pretty technical for me, but the pic was neat!  Weather never fails to amaze.

I'll be honest, it took me a while to get it lol

You know how the higher you go the colder the air gets? Take some warm, humid air from the surface and bring it 10 miles up the moisture will condensate, making clouds, rain, etc. Add other elements, like wind coming from different directions at different heights you can see how you might end up with different types of weather...showers to severe thunderstorms and so on. Not the best at explaining what I don't fully understand but I get the basics and with so much help from easily accessible forecast models and social media you can storm chase pretty easily which is kind of scary because that means almost anyone can do it...even people who probably shouldn't do it... I might be one of those people lol

Well, I think you are a step up from the tornado day-tripper tourists lol  You've done the research and have got some experience under your belt now, so I'd feel ok in your car going storm chasing. Then again, it's possible I might bail out at the first sign of tornado action 

(05-02-2020, 06:02 PM)Bookworm Wrote: Well, I think you are a step up from the tornado day-tripper tourists lol  You've done the research and have got some experience under your belt now, so I'd feel ok in your car going storm chasing. Then again, it's possible I might bail out at the first sign of tornado action 

Well thanks. I tried to be careful enough. Driving a Prius to go storm chasing, you know to avoid dirt roads. That's another thing that can get you in trouble. Sure, the dirt roads are fine when they're dry, but if they get wet even 4x4's can get stuck. Really don't want to pay $300 to have my car pulled out.

I don't think I would want to get too close as tornadoes can change direction although they, in a classical storm, generally move to the NE...so if you're to the SE of the tornado you're probably ok but there are many instances where they can move south such as the El Reno, OK tornado (the largest tornado ever recorded, 2.5 miles wide).

The more likely thing is hail. I did in fact pack safety googles, fortunately didn't need them. I also packed my drone but decided not to fly it as I probably would have never seen it again, although some people have flown their drone into a tornado, or around one, but did end up crashing it (not surprised).