An impossible situation

[Anonymous]

I am currently living in one of the Baltic States (namely Estonia) and while the situation here is stable as far as the everyday life is concerned, I am seriously worried that this whole thing with Russia can end up in a destabilization attempt (or worse) on this country as well. I don't really believe NATO would physically fight Russia if the latter decided to attack any of the Baltic States, and I wouldn't blame them. And even if NATO fought Russia back, it would mean Russia was already physically fighting the Baltic States, which would mean Estonia would look something like the eastern Ukraine does now, so it's not like the defense would undo all that.

Two days ago an Estonian security officer was abducted by Russians. It took place two days after Obama was here and it happened near the Russian border in Estonia. The Russians used flash grenades and jamming equipment in the process so the nearby security forces couldn't come to the rescue. The man has been taken to Moscow and is now held under custody there. I don't even know if I'm blowing it out of proportion or if this is the first sign of the events to come, and what my future will look like. I don't want this life. I don't want war and occupation. I am a man of the Western world. I grew up learning about Greece and Rome, French Enlightenment, the unification of Italy. I believe in that and I understand that life. I don't understand Russia and I cannot survive under Russian rule.

This situation is so fucked up that I really don't know what will happen in the long term. I hate the fact that this one person has ruined the peace in continental Europe. I love Europe, and this is not the state I want to see it in. I never expected to see anything like this take place in my life time. It's the fact that this situation is not inherently stable in the long term, that is the most scary aspect of this whole thing. I don't know what will happen in two months, in six, ten. How can one live like that?

[East]

I don't blame you...it IS an uncomfortable situation. Is it possible for you to relocate in order to have some peace of mind?

[Bowyn Aerrow]

If I lived there I would be making plans for a long vacation, or decide to become a foreign student in some other far off land - anything but be there. This is based on what the media is reporting. News reporting is no longer about facts, its more about sensationalism and telling us how we should feel about the news.

Therefore my gut reaction is based on that filter, which may be wrong.

My guts are telling me that this isn't going to stop here, its escalating and I really have no idea what is going through Mr. Putin's head right now. But it feels like Russia has its eyes on Empire again and is trying to expand its control in the modern world which doesn't tolerate expansion of empires.

So no, I don't feel like you are blowing it out of proportion. If anything you my be spot on.

US news is unreliable about anything - inside or outside of its borders. So I have no idea what the real politics are in your nation, in Russia and all of those other ex-soviet states. I take it there are old wounds that exist which I doubt most Americans can understand because we never actually understood the USSR and communism, we feared it - which lead to stymieing any real chance of understanding it.

If your in your twenties, perhaps you need to talk to your parents or folk from their generation - Grand parents may actually shed a lot more light on the whole history of the situation and thus provide you with a better sense of what is really going on.

I'm talking about people who lived through the 'fresh start' of the post Cold War Error, or if you prefer the post Soviet Era. They will have a slightly better understanding of what is going on.

No one is a mind reader, no one can see the future clearly, so don't expect a solid answer to 'what happens next', you may just end up with a bunch of hunches and 'best guesses based on X'....

[Aike]

The crisis in Ukraine is a domestic one and Putin's actions have mainly been reactive. He is not the kind of a warmongering lunatic the Western mainstream media makes him look like. If war really broke out, you're gonna have to point your finger towards the West (towards the disaster otherwise known as U.S. foreign policy) at least as much as towards the East. Sorry to make you feel worse but both sides suck.

[Anonymous]

Thank you for your replies.

I grew up in a free country. When I was born the Russian rule was already weak and the country regained its independence shortly after. So I have no immediate experience with that and I find communism revolting.

I have thought about relocating and it is possible, but I don't want to just pack my life up and go when nothing is yet happening. If anything like Ukraine started up I would get out of here. Although I don't have the outside perspective. When it was happening in Ukraine I could tell the severity of the circumstances from media reporting rather accurately but I think it's more difficult to do so when you are in the middle of the events taking place.

This thing has a psychological effect though. It's the uncertainty that is the worst about it. Everything is fine right now, but there is a potential that Estonia could be thrown in the middle of it and I would have no control over anything that would happen. It feels depressing and it is interfering with normal day-to-day functioning. In that sense, it would be best to take a vacation and see how it plays out from distance. But this situation is not going to be resolved in the next couple of months, maybe not even a year. That ''vacation'' would have to be a permanent relocation. I have no misconceptions about that. I see it best to try to hold it out over here until that really becomes impossible.

And what bothers me about this recent event concerning the abduction of the Estonian security officer is the very same pattern of how Russia presents the situation as how it did in Ukraine. Under the events the way they are presented there is the exact same pattern that started out in Crimea. And it follows the exact same line on the Estonian side as it did in Ukraine as well, the incredulity or naivety on the part of our officials like there was naivety on the Ukrainian side.

It's the same type of twisting around the facts on Russia's part, and same type of idealistic presentation on the Estonian side, that it's really similar to how it played out in Crimea. Maybe that's what's triggering my psychological tolerances here, this analogy, I don't know. But I don't feel that the events add up. For now it's one spy in Russia's border zone; next it's that whole region immersed in nation-wide conspiracy against Russia. That's the scenario the Estonian intelligence should be thinking about and preparing for, not downplaying the thing and acting so naïve as to quote expectations of co-operation on Russia's side. It makes me feel that they don't know what they're doing at all, in fact. And that is scary as well.


I know nobody has a solid answer to ''what happens next''. I know I just have to wait and see how things play out. I was just feeling really fucked up about it and needed an outside perspective.

The crisis in Ukraine is a domestic one and Putin's actions have mainly been reactive. He is not the kind of a warmongering lunatic the Western mainstream media makes him look like. If war really broke out, you're gonna have to point your finger towards the West (towards the disaster otherwise known as U.S. foreign policy) at least as much as towards the East.

Tell that to Georgia and Crimea. I understand very well that Putin is against the prospect of ever even considering Ukraine or Georgia join NATO. In that sense, his actions are reactive. Would you say that invading an independent foreign country and suppressing its liberties, sending military forces there that do stir up actual physical fighting in the population and forcefully changing the country's territorial bounds is an acceptable ''reaction'' then?

If your actions induce war, if people get killed and residential housing gets shelled, lives and families destroyed, does that make any difference if it were the troops of the ''warmongering lunatic'' himself who shot your house up, or that it was a more indirect consequence of his actions?

[MikeW]

I agree with what everyone else is saying above me. Talk with some people who have been around longer and see what they say. Consider taking a "long vacation" if the situation seems to warrant it. (Better to do this sooner than wait until it is not possible.) And I agree a lot of this has to do with US foreign policy -- which is based on the idea that "we" must not let *any* nation or group of nations (e.g. Russia + China) become sufficiently economically or militarily powerful enough to pose a threat to OUR global hegemony.

Whether it is short range or long range, I'm *very* concerned that this is going to lead to all-out war at some point. In fact, the way I see it, we're already in a "new cold war" right now -- one that could get much worse. For sure there is much more going on than is being reported and what is being reported isn't reliable information.

[MikeW]

. . . Would you say that invading an independent foreign country and suppressing its liberties, sending military forces there that do stir up actual physical fighting in the population and forcefully changing the country's territorial bounds is an acceptable ''reaction'' then?

Two words: Iraq and Afghanistan.

Since George W. Bush, US foreign policy is based on "the Bush doctrine." This latter indicates we reserve the right to militarily intervene, including attacking another "sovereign nation" without military provocation, if we even PERCEIVE they are a threat to our interests or national security. For the "first cold war" history of this, see: "The Grand Chessboard." See also, "The New Cold War."

[Aike]

Tell that to Georgia and Crimea. I understand very well that Putin is against the prospect of ever even considering Ukraine or Georgia join NATO. In that sense, his actions are reactive. Would you say that invading an independent foreign country and suppressing its liberties, sending military forces there that do stir up actual physical fighting in the population and forcefully changing the country's territorial bounds is an acceptable ''reaction'' then?

If your actions induce war, if people get killed and residential housing gets shelled, lives and families destroyed, does that make any difference if it were the troops of the ''warmongering lunatic'' himself who shot your house up, or that it was a more indirect consequence of his actions?

I'm saying that Putin is not leading the East-Ukrainian forces. He might be escalating the crisis by supporting them militarily but he is clearly not in control of the situation. As for what's perpetuating the civil war in Ukraine, it is mainly the "counter-terrorist" operation launched by the newly installed Ukrainian government against the Russian-speaking population of eastern Ukraine, not the "aggressive actions" of Putin. What are depicted as rebellious pro-Russian terrorists in the Western media are mostly just people defending themselves from their own government. Did you know the Ukrainian government (which is backed by the U.S.) actually uses fascist para-military forces in its operations?

You should also bear in mind that Ukraine is by no means a unified nation but is heavily split between the western Ukrainian speaking population and the eastern Russian-speaking population. The annexation of Crimea was not the result of some entirely foreign invasion. The majority of the population in Crimea actually supported the annexation (in spite of any distortions in the referendum).

In short: the situation is not so black-and-white as the picture you get from western media depicts.

[Beaux]

I am going to try and present what I have to say very carefully. I have mentioned before, that my husband is an employee of the Department of Defense here in the US. Specifically, he works for SPAWAR through the offices of the Navy as a Communications Engineer.
Putin has publicly stated that he intends to engage in Nation Building, which is in direct opposition to the Geneva Conventions.
I would suggest, if humanly possible, that you begin to make preparations to take an extended holliday to a less incendiary reigon of Europe, or perhaps even to another world reigon (the Americas perhaps), as the continued aggressive behaviors of the Russian government appear to be "winding up" rather than "winding down".
Take my statements as you will, but you number one priority has to be for the safty of yourself and your family.
You will be in my thoughts,
Beaux

[Anonymous]

If I were in a former Soviet country, I would have a bag packed and ready to go at all times. The bag's contents would look like I was just going on a vacation. I would put some money in a foreign bank account. I'd have a plan in place on how to get out at a moment's notice. I'd also hope I never needed to implement that plan.